每日一篇:《经济学人》读译参考 Day29
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经济学人:六大经济学原理:通胀与失业的关系(3)
Economics Brief Six Big Ideas: The relationship between inflation and unemployment
经济学简介 六大经济学原理:通胀与失业的关系
The implication?For a central bank to keep unemployment below the natural rate, it must keep outdoing itself, delivering inflation surprise after inflation surprise.Hence, Friedman reasoned, Keynesians were wrong to pin a low rate of unemployment to a given, high rate of inflation.
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言下之意?对于想把失业率维持在自然比率之下的央行来说,它必须保持不断地超越自身,传递出一个又一个的通胀惊奇。因而,弗里德曼分析道,凯恩斯主义把低失业率与给定的、高通胀率相挂钩是错误的。
To sustain unemployment even a little below the natural rate, inflation would need to accelerate year in, year out.Friedman's and Phelps's natural rate became known as the “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” (NAIRU).
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要想把失业率维持在哪怕是比自然比率低一点的地方,通胀也必需不断加速。弗里德曼和菲尔普斯的自然比率已成为众所周知的“非加速通胀型失业比率”(non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment 简称NAIRU)。
No society could tolerate endlessly rising, or falling, inflation.Phillips had observed a correlation in the data, but it was not one that policymakers could exploit in the long run.“There is always a temporary trade-off between inflation and unemployment,” Friedman said. “There is no permanent trade-off.”
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没有社会可能容忍上蹿下跳的通胀。菲利浦斯在数据中找到了一种关联,却不是决策者可以长期利用的那种。“在通胀和失业之间,有的总是一种暂时的取舍,”弗里德曼说,“没有永久的取舍”。
Nearly 50 years on, that remains the premise on which rich-world central banks operate.When officials talk about the Phillips curve, they mean Friedman's temporary trade-off.In the long run, they believe, unemployment will come to rest at the natural rate.
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将近50年以后,这仍然是富裕世界的央行以之运作的前提。当官员们谈论菲利普斯曲线时,指的是弗里德曼的暂时取舍。他们坚信,从长期来看,失业率终将止息于自然比率。
The idea has such influence partly because Friedman's and Phelps's contributions were so well timed.Before 1968, America had had two years with unemployment below 4% and inflation below 3%.But when Friedman spoke, prices were indeed accelerating; inflation rose to 4.2% in 1968.The next year it hit 5.4% even as unemployment changed little.
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这种思想之所以有如此的影响力,部分是因为弗里德曼和菲尔普斯的贡献正合时宜。1968年之前,美国曾经有两年失业低于4%、通胀低于3%。但是,弗里德曼讲话时,物价的确是在加速;1968年,通胀上涨到了4.2%。第二年,甚至在失业变化不大的情况下达到了5.4%。
注释
1.known as 被称为
例句:China has always been known as a land of propriety and righteousness.
中国从来以礼义之邦著称。
2.central banks 中央银行
例句:The resources at the central banks' disposal are simply too puny.
中央银行掌握的资金实在太少了。
3.talk about 谈论
例句:I had a long talk about this with my best friend.
我和我最好的朋友就此事进行了长谈。
4.In the long run 长远来看
例句:In the long run, I think it is good for China and good for the world.
从长远来看,这对中国和世界都是好的。
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1、每日一篇:《经济学人》读译参考 Day28
2、每日一篇:《经济学人》读译参考 Day27
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