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经济学人:埃航失事:波音信誉遭到危机(2)
Leaders
《社论》版块
The aircraft industry
飞机业
Plane truths
飞机真相
This week’s crash foreshadows the end of that golden age. Another MAX 8 crashed in October in Indonesia in similar circumstances. Although investigators have yet to determine the cause of the Ethiopian Airlines accident, regulators suspect that the max 8 has a design flaw.
译文
本周的坠机事件预示着黄金时代的终结。2018年10月,MAX 8在印度尼西亚也发生了类似事故。尽管调查人员尚未确定埃塞俄比亚航空公司事故的原因,但监管机构怀疑MAX 8存在设计缺陷。
This plays into the worry that a new technological phase is under way. Aircraft are becoming autonomous, as computers take charge. This promises safer, more efficient flying, but the interaction between human pilots and machines is still unpredictable and experimental. In the Indonesian crash the pilots fought a losing battle against anti-stalling software that forced the plane’s nose down at least 20 times.
译文
这加剧了人们对新技术阶段本来就有的担忧。随着计算机的应用,飞机变得越来越智能。这意味着飞行将更安全、更高效,但人类飞行员与机器之间的互动仍是不可预测的,而且还处于实验阶段。在印尼坠机事件中,防失速系统迫使飞机机头向下至少20次,飞行员最终没能战胜防失速系统。
The industry’s technical complexity is amplified by its organisational complexity. In the 1990s a few Western airlines dominated and a handful of regulators had global clout. Now there are hundreds of airlines and 290,000 pilots worldwide. In 2018, for the first time, less than half of the global fleet was based in the West. Maintaining common standards on training and procedures is harder. China and other countries want a bigger say. The credibility of American regulators has slipped because they have let domestic competition decline. This suggests they are cosy with industry.
译文
飞机业的组织复杂性增强了技术复杂性。上世纪90年代,少数西方航空公司占据主导地位,少数监管机构拥有全球影响力。现在全球有数百家航空公司和29万名飞行员。2018年,全球航空队伍首次只有不到半数驻扎在西方。维持培训和程序方面的共同标准更加困难。中国和其他国家想要更多发言权。美国监管机构的信誉已经下滑,因为他们放任国内竞争下降。这表明他们对飞机业很放松。
Then comes geopolitics. With their hubs in Seattle and Toulouse, Boeing and Airbus are among the West’s largest exporters and a rare example of an industry in which China cannot compete. It would be depressing, but not impossible, if safety decisions were influenced by trade tensions. Over time, China and India may insist that the duopoly make more aircraft within their borders, to capture more jobs and intellectual property. That could require a restructuring of how both firms manufacture. Rows over aircraft emissions will further complicate the debate.
译文
然后是地缘政治。波音和空客的枢纽位于西雅图和图卢兹,处于西方最大出口商位列,也是中国无法与之竞争的一个罕见行业。如果安全决策受到贸易紧张局势的影响,这将令人沮丧,但并非不可能。随着时间的推移,中国和印度可能会坚持要求这两家双头垄断企业在各自境内制造更多的飞机,以获取更多的就业机会和知识产权。这可能需要对两家公司的生产方式进行重组。有关飞机排放的争吵将使这场辩论进一步复杂化。
Neither Boeing nor Airbus is about to go bust. Any flaw in the MAX 8 will probably be resolved, as battery problems in the 787 Dreamliner were in 2013. Boeing has $12.7bn of cash and bank lines to cushion it from the reputational crisis. Both firms are ultimately backed by governments. In any case, demand for planes will grow. But ahead lie environmental and technological uncertainty, organisational complexity and geopolitical tension. The years of bumper margins may be over.
译文
波音和空客都不会破产。MAX 8的任何缺陷都可能解决,就像2013年787梦幻客机的电池问题一样。波音坐拥127亿美元现金和银行贷款,以防缓冲声誉危机不时之需。这两家公司最终都得到了政府的支持。无论如何,对飞机的需求将会增长。但未来将面临环境和技术不确定性、组织复杂性和地缘政治紧张局势。多年来利润丰厚的时代可能已经结束。
注释
1.amplify something 增强
The mist had been replaced by a kind of haze that seemed to amplify the heat.
这薄雾已经被一种热汽代替了,这似乎加重了炎热的程度。
2.go bust 倒闭
We interviewed ferry operators who feared they would go bust
我们采访了那些担心自己会破产的渡轮运营商。来源于《WSJ》
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