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经济学人:避免石油价格冲击的天然避险策略
Another threat is a rising oil price. In September the price of Brent crude surpassed $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014,driven in part by falling Venezuelan supply and the prospect of American sanctions on Iran. It now stands at around $82.
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另一个威胁是油价的增长。9月,布伦特原油价格自2014年以来首次超过80美元\桶,而出现这种现象部分是由于委内瑞拉石油供应量下降以及美国对伊朗实施制裁的前景。现在石油价格为82美元。
Costly fuel used to threaten the American economy. Today, however, it spurs investment in shale rigs.That gives America a natural hedge against oil-price shocks, even though, in the short term, limited pipeline capacity might mean investment responds only slowly.
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过去高额的燃料会对美国经济造成威胁,而今却刺激了其对页岩油设备的投资。这给了美国一个避免石油价格冲击的天然避险策略,虽然短期来看,有限的管线输送能力或许意味着投资回报缓慢。
Finally, there is Mr Trump's trade war. America will eventually suffer from the distortive effects of rising tariffs,but it is not all that dependent on trade to fuel demand in the short term.Forecasts of the effect of existing tariffs on American growth and inflation predict only a small impact.The result is that the trade war so far also looks like an asymmetric shock—certainly as far as China is concerned.
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最后,还有特朗普的贸易战争。美国最终将遭遇关税上涨的扭曲性影响,但要在短期内刺激需求并不完全依赖于贸易。预计现有关税对美国经济增长和通货膨胀的影响并不大。这是因为到目前为止,这场贸易战似乎是一种非对称性冲击—就中国而言是这样的。
The danger is that America's outperformance pushes the dollar even higher, leading to more volatility in global finance and crimping growth in emerging markets.Yet America's boom will not last for ever. Tax cuts will no longer provide incremental stimulus after 2019.Some forecasters fret that an end to the largesse, together with higher interest rates, may be sufficient to tip the country into recession by 2020.
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危险之处在于美国的优势推动美元增值,给全球金融造成更多的不定性,也给新兴市场的增长造成更多阻碍。但美国的繁荣不会一直持续下去。2019年后,减税政策将不再有增值刺激。一些预测者担心截至2020年,慷慨救助的终止加上更高的利率,或许这足以让一个国家陷入经济衰退。
Analysts expect America's economy, with its ageing population, to expand by less than 2% a year in the long run.That suggests that, unless productivity surges, a slowdown must eventually come.The question then is whether the rest of the world can withstand, let alone make up for, an eventual slowdown in America.Not long ago, the consensus may have been that it could cope. Now there is more to worry about.
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分析家预测随着其老龄化加剧,美国经济的增长最终不会超过2%。这表明,除非生产力暴增,否则经济下滑必将到来。那么到那时其他国家是否能抵挡得住美国最终的经济下滑都是个问题,更别提要进行弥补了。不久前,各方或许还一致认为其可以应对。现在有更多事情需要担心了。
注释
1.surpass 超过
The LHC was meant to surpass the Tevatron
大型强子对撞机超过了粒子加速器。来源于《VOA》
2.spur 鼓动;刺激
He advocated additional federal stimulus to spur economic activity.
他主张采取更多的联邦刺激措施来刺激经济活动。来源于《VOA》
3.tariff 关税
Non-tariff barriers in the developed world are increasing rapidly
发达国家的非关税壁垒正在迅速增加。来源于《VOA》
4.stimulus 刺激物
Unemployment might well be even higher without that stimulus
如果没有刺激措施,失业率很可能会更高。来源于《WSJ》
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