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每日一篇:《经济学人》读译参考 Day190

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  经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(3)


  Officials could opt to abandon their tightening stance in order to counteract the trade turmoil. But that might erase the gains from the deleveraging.This explains their restraint so far. At a meeting of the Politburo on July 31st,China's leaders noted that it was a priority to support growth amid the "clear change" in the external environment,but also pledged to press on with their efforts to control debt. Investors who had hoped for more easing were disappointed.So there is cause for concern about China's growth outlook. But markets may be unduly pessimistic.
  译文
  官方可以选择放弃他们紧缩的立场以求缓和贸易混乱。但这么做会抹去来自于减债的利益。这也解释了他们到目前为止所表现出的克制。7月31日,在一场会议上,中国领导者注意到,在外部环境的“清晰变化”中支持增长才是首要任务,但是他们也承诺将加紧控制债务。寄希望于宽松政策的投资者们要失望了。因此,对中国经济增长前景的担忧是有原因的。但是市场或许过度悲观了。


  One conclusion from the past few weeks is that policymakers now accept that the trade war is real, and are starting to cushion the economy.The boost to exports from the falling yuan, down about 6% on a trade-weighted basis since mid-June,should be "roughly proportionate" to the blow from the first $50bn of American tariffs and some of the next $200bn,says Andrew Tilton, the chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs.
  译文
  从过去几周得出的结论是现在决策者承认贸易战是真实存在的,并且他们正在开始缓和经济的冲击。人民币贬值促进了出口(自6月中旬,在贸易加权基础上下降6%)这应该与美国第一次的500亿商品关税以及接下来的2000美元商品关税勉强成比,高盛投资公司,亚洲首席经济学家安德鲁·提顿说道。


  At the margins, he adds, China is shifting to a more active fiscal policy.Officials have made it easier for cities to get funding for infrastructure projects.One government adviser says there is discussion of a bigger stimulus, likely to be focused on promoting consumption rather than investment.
  译文
  他还说,中国正在转向更加积极的财政政策。由于官方的政策,各城市可以更加容易地获得基础设施项目资金。一位政府顾问表示他们对更大规模的经济刺激计划进行了讨论,他们可能会专注于促进消费而非投资。


  The economic backdrop to the trade war could also change over the next year.As China tiptoes towards easing, its credit growth should pick up.Meanwhile, America may be near the top of its growth cycle, with gains from last year's tax cut set to dissipate.
  译文
  在未来一年中,贸易战争的经济背景可能也会改变。中国小心翼翼寻求宽松政策,其债务增长应该有所改善。与此同时,美国或许靠近其生长周期的巅峰,其去年减税收益开始消退。


  Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics, a research firm, says the divergence in their stock markets might reflect overconfidence in America and an evaporation of confidence in China. "Both reactions seem exaggerated," he says.With no resolution to the trade war in sight, there will be time enough to test this proposition.
  译文
  研究公司牛津经济研究院的高路易表示,股票市场的分歧或许反映出了美国的过度自信和中国的信心蒸发。“两种反应都被夸大了,”他说。由于没有应对贸易战争的最终方案,要测试这个命题,我们有的是时间。


  注释
  1.opt 选择
  Many workers opted to leave their jobs rather than take a pay cut.
  许多工人宁肯下岗也不接受减薪。


 2.pessimistic 悲观的
  Not everyone is so pessimistic about the future.
  并非每个人都对未来如此悲观。


  3.cushion 缓解
  They said Western aid was needed to cushion the blows of vital reform.
  他们说需要西方国家的援助以缓解重大变革的冲击。


  4.dissipate 浪费
  He needs someone who can keep him from dissipating his time and energy on too many different things.
  他需要有人来阻止他浪费时间和精力做太多不同的事情。


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