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经济学人:六大经济学原理:通胀与失业的关系(4)
Economics Brief Six Big Ideas: The relationship between inflation and unemployment
经济学简介 六大经济学原理:通胀与失业的关系
The “stagflation” of the 1970s killed off the idea of a stable Phillips curve.Successive shocks to oil prices, in 1973 and 1979, sent both inflation and unemployment surging.In 1975 both were above 8%; in 1980 inflation hit 13.5% even as unemployment exceeded 7%.
译文
上世纪70年代“滞张”(stagflation)曾一度让稳定的菲利普斯曲线的思想销声匿迹。1973年和1979年对油价的接二连三的冲击令通胀和失业双双飙升。1975年,两者双双高于8%;1980年,通胀甚至在纵然失业超过7%的情况下达到了13.5%。
The idea of the NAIRU looked a little shaky, too; inflation was meant to fall so long as unemployment was too high.But Friedman's followers could argue that bad supply-side policies, in conjunction with the oil-price shocks, had pushed the NAIRU up.
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NAIRU的思想也看上去有点动摇了;只要失业过高,通胀本来一定是会下跌的。但是,弗里德曼的追随者却可能指出,差劲的供给侧政策,加之油价冲击波,推高了NAIRU。
Around the same time, however, the concept of the NAIRU came under attack from theorists.It was built, in part, on the idea that inflation expectations are “adaptive” : to predict inflation, firms and workers look at its current value.But the doctrine of “rational expectations” decreed that firms and consumers would, to the greatest extent possible, anticipate policymakers' actions.
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然而,在大致同一时间,NAIRU的概念却遭到了来自理论专家们的攻击。这种攻击部分地基于通胀预期是“自适应的”(adaptive)观点。即,为预测通胀,公司和工人关心的通胀的当前价值。但是,“理性预期”的原则断定,公司和消费者会在可能的最大限度内预测决策者的行动。
Whenever the public suspected that central bankers would try to push employment below the natural rate, inflation would rise immediately.On the other hand, a credible promise not to seek any unsustainable jobs booms should keep inflation under control, simply by “anchoring” expectations.
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当公众怀疑央行银行家试图把就业率推低至自然比率之下时,通胀立刻就会上升。从另一个角度来说,某种可信的不去寻求任何不可持续的就业繁荣的承诺,单靠“锚定”预期,应当能让通胀俯首帖耳。
注释
1.killed off 消灭
例句:The invaders killed off all the inhabitants of the town.
侵略者把全镇居民都杀了。
2.under control 处于控制下
例句:Firemen said they had the blaze under control.
消防队员说他们已经控制住了火势。
3.in part 部分;某种程度上
例句:The levels of blood glucose depend in part on what you eat and when you eat.
血糖水平在某种程度上取决于饮食内容和时间。
4.so long as 只要
例句:So long as what you do is right, I'll go along with you.
只要你们做得对,我都随着。
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