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经济学人:六大经济学原理:失业的自然比率(2)
Economics Brief Six Big Ideas: The natural rate of unemployment
经济学简介 六大经济学原理:失业的自然比率
If people cannot find jobs because they have outdated skills—think hand weavers after the invention of the loom—they might become “structurally” unemployed.But it is the trade-off between unemployment and inflation that most preoccupies central bankers.
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如果人们是因为具有过时的技能而不能找到工作——想想织布机发明之后的手工织布工——他们可能变得“结构性地”失业(structurally unemployed).但是,最让央行银行家劳心费神的是失业和通胀之间的那种取舍。
John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist, took a first step towards the natural-rate hypothesis when he focused minds on “involuntary” unemployment.In his book “The General Theory”, published in 1936 in the aftermath of the Depression, Keynes noted that many people could not find jobs at the going wage, even if they had comparable skills to those in work.
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伟大的英国经济学家凯恩斯在关注“非自愿性”失业(involuntary unemployment)时,迈出了通往自然比率假设的第一步。在他的那本在大萧条之后的1936年出版的《通论》一书中,凯恩斯指出,许多人哪怕是拥有与在职之人不相上下的技能,也不可能以现有的工资找到工作。
Classical economics blamed artificially high wages, perhaps caused by trade unions.But Keynes pointed to lacklustre economy-wide spending.Even if wages fell, he reasoned, workers would have less to spend, making the demand deficiency worse.The answer, he thought, was for governments to manage aggregate demand in order to keep employment “full”.
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古典经济学将其归咎于人为的高工资,这种高工资可能是由工会造成的。但是,凯恩斯直指死气沉沉的整个经济体的开支。他分析道,尽管工资降了,但是,工人可以花钱的地方也会减少,令需求不足更加严重。他认为,对政府来说,答案是管理总需求,以保持就业是“完全的”(full)。
Keynes was not the father of all that is now thought of as “Keynesian”.Inflation, for instance, barely entered his analysis of unemployment.But by the late 1960s Keynesianism had become associated with the idea that when managing aggregate demand, policymakers are not just choosing a rate of unemployment.They are simultaneously choosing how fast prices rise.
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凯恩斯不是现在被认为是“凯恩斯学派”的全部内容之父。例如,通胀几乎没有进入他的失业分析。但是,到上世纪60年代,凯恩斯主义已经与决策者在管理总需求时不单单是在选择一种失业率的思想变得密不可分了。他们同时还在选择物价涨得有多快。
注释
1.focused on 关注
例句:Every eye at the conference was focused on the rostrum.
代表们的眼光都集注在大会主席台上。
2.for instance 例如
例句:There are jobs more dangerous than truck driving; for instance, training lions.
有的工作比驾驶卡车更危险,例如驯狮。
3.in order to 为了
例句:In order to ensure success we must have a complete and thorough plan.
为了保证成功,我们必须要有一个周密的计划。
4.took a first step toward 采取第一步
例句:Recently, I took a first step toward getting my music collection back in order.
最近,为了让我的音乐收藏回归有序,我采取了第一步行动。
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